Tue 06.10. 02:15 Week 4
FINAL
+1.7 pts
lost
Falcons
WWLLW
45:24
FINAL
ATL
2.24
+124
ATL +3
1.85
-118
NO
1.68
-148
-6
Saints
WLLWL
Model
54%
Saints: 2 wins in the last 5
Exact score 20:21
Margin Saints 1–7
Home total Saints Under 25.5
Away total Falcons Under 22.5
Read
The Saints have the slight model edge at home and the better recent form, so the side is on them.
Saints: 2 wins in the last 5Falcons: 3 wins in the last 5Rest Saints 8d · Falcons 11dDivisional game
Projected 20:21
Odds
ML ATL2.24+124
ML NO1.68-148
ATL +31.85-118
NO -31.98-102
Over 48.51.93-108
Under 48.51.89-112
Tips
Moneyline
1.68
lost
Saints -148
The Saints have the slight model edge at home and the better recent form, so the side is on them.
Spread
1.85
won
Falcons +3 (-118)
The visitors keep it close and cover the three-point line with a 1.7-point model edge.
Total
1.89
lost
Under 48.5 (-112)
Both offenses stay under the high line, with the model 7.1 points below it.
Exact score
lost
20:21
The model sees a tight divisional game at 20:21, so this side reflects the model's number.
Margin
lost
Saints 1–7
The most likely range is a Saints win by 1–7 points, which the model supports at 20%.
Home total
won
Saints Under 25.5
With a model value of 21.4 points, the Saints offense sits 4.1 points below the 25.5 line.
Away total
lost
Falcons Under 22.5
At a model value of 20.0 points, the Falcons offense stays 2.5 points below the 22.5 line.
H2H (2)
2
ATL
0
T
0
NO
35.0
Ø
19-1724-10
Falcons
W 35-14L 3-34L 13-20W 19-17W 27-24
Saints
L 27-35W 24-17L 30-31L 17-19W 34-26
30%Offense36%
55%Defense52%