WEEK 5

The Cowboys have a clearly higher win probability at 69% and confirm their favorite role against a team in poor form.

The Buccaneers keep the deficit at 6.9 points below the 8.5 line and thus cover the spread.

The model expects 48.8 points, more than the 47.5 line, which favors the over.

The Buccaneers score 20.9 points according to the model, surpassing the 19.5 line.

The Jaguars have a clearly better setup at home, and the model gives them a 71 percent win probability, which justifies the -355 line.

The Packers at home are favored by a 1.6-point edge over the 3-point line according to the model's 1.4-point margin, supporting the Packers +3 side despite the even injury reports and recent form.

Despite both teams' poor form, the Texans have the clearly better outlook, and the model gives them a 70 percent win probability, so the Texans -355 side is the correct one.

The Titans will score enough against a weak defense, and the model projects 15.8 points, above the 14.5 line, so the Titans Over 14.5 side is the correct one.

The visitors have impressed in five of their last six games and face an opponent riding a five-game losing streak, so the model clearly backs this side at 68 percent.

Both teams have shown weak defensive performances lately, and the model projects 43.9 points, which is 1.4 points above the 42.5 line.

The Raiders keep the game close, and the model's 2.3-point edge for the Patriots falls short of the 3.5-point line, giving the visitors a 1.2-point advantage.

The model has the Browns just 0.5 points behind the Jets, while the line demands 2.5 points, creating a clear 2-point edge for the visitors.

The model projects 41.3 points, well above the 39.5 line, giving a 1.8-point edge to the Over.

The model projects 20.4 points for the visitors, while the line sits at 18.5, meaning a 1.9-point edge for the Over.

The visitors have impressed in four of their last five games and face an opponent that has dropped three straight, making the road win the logical side.

While the favorite is clearly superior, the opponent remains competitive at home, so a narrow road win by one to seven points is the most likely margin.

The 49ers are clearly the stronger side with four wins in their last five and no injuries, while the model has them only 0.1 points behind the Seahawks, which is 2.4 points above the 2.5 line.

The 49ers come in with strong offensive form from four wins in five games and no injuries, and the model projects 23.3 points, which is 1.8 points above the 21.5 line.

The model rates the Ravens 2.6 points better than the line, so Baltimore +3.5 is the right side.

The model projects 44.8 points, 1.3 above the line, so Over 43.5 is the right side.

The model projects 22.0 points for the Ravens, 2.5 above the line, so Over 19.5 is the right side.