Frozen
The price at publication is the one that counts. A later number does not move the pick or the grade.
Why a number of our own
The card is an opinion before kickoff. It does not follow a later price or a tipster.
Our number
Expected margin and total come first. The posted line is mixed in after that.
Not a bet
An information service of Business Operation Service GmbH. Not an NFL product and not a sportsbook. 18+.
Three layers
The data, the sum, and the rule for when a tip is allowed on the card.
Week and lines
ESPN supplies the slate and the price. nflverse supplies EPA, pace, the quarterback and the injury report.
The number
Each team keeps its own pace. Pass and rush are separate, and the quarterback carries the pass side.
The gate
Moneyline only from 60 percent. Spread only with a clear gap. Total only inside a narrow window after the pull.
How the number is built
The order is fixed. The weights were measured on older seasons. A week already on the site is not rewritten.
01
Pace
Pass and rush
Pass plays are pace times pass rate, the rest are rushes. That builds the expected score, then home field and rest.
02
Who throws
Quarterback
His EPA when it exists. Otherwise the team's pass EPA. If he is out or has changed, the replacement value is used.
03
Absences and wind
Situation
An offensive line that is out or doubtful costs points, with a cap. Wind from 15 mph outdoors cuts only the total. A roof stays out of it.
04
Write once
Lock
The number is stored only when the game does not have one yet. Older weeks keep the frozen figure.
Then the line
The raw number does not beat the closing price. The model keeps only a share. The rest is the posted line. The weight comes from the 2023 to 2025 seasons, not from two NFL weeks.
Margin
35% Model65% Line
35 percent model, 65 percent line.
Total
20% Model80% Line
20 percent model, 80 percent line.
Margin = 0.35 · model + 0.65 · line. Total = 0.20 · model + 0.80 · line.
When a tip is published
Not every gap is published. The card stays readable when a market stays quiet.
Moneyline
Only from a 60 percent win probability. A tie after overtime is a push.
Spread
Only from 1 to 10 points off the line. A whole-number line that lands exactly is a push.
Total
After the pull, only 1.25 to 3 points from the line. Closer is too close, farther is too far.
Margin and score
1–7, 8–14 or 15+ only from the middle of the band and from 60 percent. The rounded score stays on the card and is not graded.
What the card shows
The same card as the football site. The markets are the NFL ones. Everything is free to read for now. Checkout is not connected.
| Market | What it asks | When it appears |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Who wins, with no point line. | From 60 percent. |
| Spread | Whether the margin clears the line. | 1 to 10 points off the line. |
| Total | Over or under on both teams. | 1.25 to 3 points after the pull. |
| Team total | One team's points against the half line. | The same window as the game total. |
| Score | Rounded model score, away to home. | Always visible, never graded. |
| Margin | 1–7, 8–14 or 15 or more. | Only from the middle of the band, from 60 percent. |
College football is not part of this build. No win is guaranteed.