Bengals: 3 wins in the last 5
The Jaguars have a balanced recent form despite a close loss and face an opponent that is also inconsistent, so the underdog at +124 has a real chance to win.
The Jaguars have a balanced recent form despite a close loss and face an opponent that is also inconsistent, so the underdog at +124 has a real chance to win.
The Jaguars keep the game close and cover +2.5, as the model sees a margin of only 4.3 points from the Bengals' perspective, making the line clearly too high.
The under 51.5 is attractive because the model expects a much lower total of 47.0 points, making the line 4.5 points too high.
The model score favors the Bengals at 26:21, so that side gets the call.
The most likely range is a Jaguars win by 1 to 7 points, which supports this side.
The model projects 21.4 points for the Bengals, 5.1 below the line, supporting the under.