Commanders: 2 wins in the last 5
The visitors have the clearly better starting position despite mixed form, and the model gives them a 53 percent win probability, which justifies the -185 price.
The visitors have the clearly better starting position despite mixed form, and the model gives them a 53 percent win probability, which justifies the -185 price.
The hosts stay within the 3.5-point cushion, as the model sees only a 1.0-point deficit, leaving 2.5 points of value against the line.
The model expects 52.1 points, clearly more than the 47.5 line, which means 4.6 points of value to the over.
The model has the Commanders edging it 27-26, so this side reflects the most likely outcome.
A narrow Colts win by 1 to 7 points is the model's most likely margin at 20 percent.
With 25.6 projected points, the model sits 4.1 points above the line, favoring the Commanders over.