Sun 27.09. 19:00 Week 3
FINAL
+4.9 pts
won
Chiefs
LLLWW
24:10
FINAL
KC
1.17
-575
-20
MIA +10
1.87
-115
+11
MIA
5.25
+425
+16
Dolphins
LWLLL
Model
65%
Dolphins: 1 wins in the last 5
Read
The Chiefs have the clearly better starting position despite injuries, and the model gives them a 65 percent win probability, supporting their favorite role at -575.
Dolphins: 1 wins in the last 5Chiefs: 2 wins in the last 5Rest Dolphins 7d · Chiefs 7dOut: Dolphins 3 · Chiefs 2
Projected 27:22
Odds
ML KC1.17-575
ML MIA5.25+425
KC -101.95-105
MIA +101.87-115
Over 45.51.95-105
Under 45.51.87-115
Tips
Moneyline
1.17
won
Chiefs -575
The Chiefs have the clearly better starting position despite injuries, and the model gives them a 65 percent win probability, supporting their favorite role at -575.
Spread
1.87
lost
Dolphins +10 (-115)
The Dolphins stay in the game at +10 because the model sees them only 5.1 points behind, giving them 4.9 points more than the line.
Total
1.95
lost
Over 45.5 (-105)
The model expects 48.1 points, more than the 45.5 line, which favors the over and a 2.6-point edge.
H2H
Chiefs
W 33-30W 31-10L 12-14L 13-20L 9-26
Dolphins
L 13-35L 13-27L 10-38W 20-17L 21-45
75%Offense35%
56%Defense17%
Injuries
Chiefs
Chamarri Conner Doubtful
Josh Simmons Out
Dolphins
Caleb Douglas Out
Jaylen Wright Doubtful
Rob Beal Jr. Out